在离散类地质分析中导航采样偏差:评估调整的贝叶斯因子的性能
Fabiana Gámbaro1, Maylis Layan2,3,4, Guy Baele5
1Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, 50 av. F.D Roosevelt, 1050 Brussels, Belgium.
Molecular biology and evolution
|October 7, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了调整后的贝叶斯因子 (BFadj),以解决病原体传播史重建中的采样偏差. BFadj 改进了根位置推断,并补充了过渡事件的标准贝叶斯因子 (BFstd).
科学领域:
- * 计算生物学 * 计算生物学
- * 进化生物学 进化生物学
- * 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- * 贝叶斯系地理学使用离散特征分析重建了病原体的分散.
- * 过渡的标准贝叶斯因子 (BFstd) 测试可能会因不均的抽样而产生偏差.
- *现有的偏差校正方法通常需要外部流行病学数据.
研究的目的:
- * 为了评估调整后的贝叶斯系数 (BFadj) 的表现,该系数解释了采样比例.
- * 评估BFadj在没有附加数据的情况下减轻植物地理推断中的采样偏差的能力.
- * 为了比较 BFadj 与 BFstd 关于过渡和根位置推理中的 I 型和 II 型错误.
主要方法:
- *模拟框架用于在各种采样偏差下测试BFstd和BFadj.
- * 计算两种方法的I型和II型错误率.
- *分析BFadj在过渡事件和根位置推断中的表现.
主要成果:
- * BFadj减少了推断过渡事件的I型错误,而增加了II型错误.
- * BFadj 改善了根位置推理的 I 型和 II 型错误率.
- * BFadj有效地结合了相对样本丰度来纠正采样偏差.
结论:
- * BFadj提供了一个有价值的工具来检测和减轻抽样偏差在离散的植物地理分析.
- * 调整后的贝叶斯系数 (BFadj) 提供了一种数据驱动的方法,以提高族群地理推断的准确性.
- * 为实施BFadj在连续时间马尔科夫链 (CTMC) 建模中的病原体进化研究提供了指导方针.
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