在气候和人口变化下,在日本的老年人中进行全国高分辨率的热风险预测和干预成本分析
Takahiro Oyama1, Jun'ya Takakura2, Noriko N Ishizaki1
1Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.
Environmental research
|October 7, 2025
概括
日本未来的热量暴露将显著增加老年人的风险. 预测显示,有数百万人处于危险之中,这凸显了迫切需要针对性的干预措施,以减轻与热有关的健康影响.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 全球变暖和日本人口老龄化加剧了与热有关的健康风险.
- 在日本每年约1000例热中风死亡中,超过80%涉及老年人.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测未来的老年人群在日本的热暴露的风险.
- 根据气候和人口变化,评估与热有关的健康风险的干预成本.
主要方法:
- 使用高分辨率 (1公里) 湿球球体温度 (WBGT) 预测.
- 将WBGT数据与人口数据结合起来,以估计风险老年人群 (AREP) 和潜在累积暴露 (PCE).
- 预计空调安装和电力补贴的干预成本.
主要成果:
- 到2060-2080年代,预计AREP的数量将达到3000万-3200万,在日本各地广泛分布.
- 在大多数市镇,AREP预计将超过当地人口的40%.
- 在各个排放场景中,PCE范围从48亿到10亿人时不等,差异>2倍.
结论:
- 据估计,每年的干预成本为1.64亿至1.77亿美元.
- 成本超过收益,除非对未来的健康影响应用较低的折扣率,从而引发了伦理方面的考虑.
- 结果为设计有效的干预措施提供了空间详细的见解,以管理未来的热健康风险.
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