对电动汽车充电行为的生存分析以及特征效应的时间演变
Matej Meža1, Gregor Strle1,2, Marko Meža3
1Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Scientific reports
|October 7, 2025
概括
预测电动汽车充电服务流失率至关重要. 这项研究使用生存建模和行为数据来识别充电频率和规律性等关键因素,有助于减少用户消耗.
科学领域:
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 机器学习 机器学习
- 电动汽车基础设施电动汽车基础设施
背景情况:
- 用户流失对电动汽车 (EV) 充电服务的可持续性构成重大挑战.
- 了解导致流失的行为模式对于开发有效的保留策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证基于生存的建模框架,用于预测电动汽车充电服务的用户流失.
- 确定影响电动汽车用户转动时间的关键行为特征.
- 利用可解释的机器学习来获取对用户保留的可操作见解.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自中欧国家的1,074名用户和107,531个充电会话的数据集.
- 采用生存分析来建模时间到,有效地处理受审查的数据.
- 实现可解释的机器学习,特别是堆叠的韦布尔生存模型与梯度增强,用于预测和分析.
主要成果:
- 最好的模型实现了高预测性能,一致性指数为0.826 ± 0.041和综合障碍得分为0.078 ± 0.008.
- 生存模型显示了强大的校准与卡普兰-梅尔估计.
- 减少退学风险的关键预测因素包括持续的充电会话频率,积极的参与趋势和充电行为的时间规律性.
结论:
- 生存建模与行为分析相结合,提供了一种强大的方法来预测和减轻电动汽车充电网络中的用户流失.
- 识别和促进一致的充电行为可以显著提高用户保留率.
- 这些发现为数据驱动的战略提供了基础,以提高电动汽车充电服务的长期可行性.
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