在辅助生殖治疗后,单子妊娠中早产的预测模型
Zhaorui Wang1, Hanjie Mo1, Liqiong Zhu1
1Reproductive Medicine Center, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 107 Yanjiang West Road, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510120, China.
BMC pregnancy and childbirth
|October 7, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种预测模型,用于辅助生殖技术 (ART) 怀孕中的早产. 该模型确定了关键的风险因素,有助于早期检测和高风险怀孕的干预.
科学领域:
- 生殖医学 生殖医学
- 孕产妇和胎儿医学 孕产妇和胎儿医学
- 临床产科 临床产科
背景情况:
- 过早分娩是一个重大的全球健康问题,通过辅助生殖技术 (ART) 怀孕的怀孕率较高.
- 识别ART怀孕中早产风险因素对于改善结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个预测模型,用于在ART后单独怀孕的早产.
- 确定与早产相关的关键临床和ART相关的风险因素.
主要方法:
- 在ART后,对268个单子活产的回顾性分析.
- 在训练集上使用多变量逻辑回归开发名图.
- 使用歧视,校准和决策曲线分析验证模型.
主要成果:
- 过早出生率为23.5%,为5分之一.
- 确定了独立的风险因素:植入胚胎的数量,妊娠高血压疾病,膜的过早破裂,多囊卵巢综合征和子宫内粘附.
- 预测模型显示可接受的歧视 (AUC 0.77培训,0.71验证) 和校准.
结论:
- 在ART怀孕中开发了一种经过验证的早产预测模型.
- 该模型有助于临床医生早期识别高风险怀孕,以进行有针对性的干预.
- 宫长度监测,特别是在第二个三个月后,可以帮助预测早产.
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