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死亡率的风险因素和儿童败血症预测模型的开发
Caizhen Wang1, Lijie Feng1, Xiaohui Yang1
1Pediatric Intensive Care Unit, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China.
Frontiers in pediatrics
|October 8, 2025
概括
儿童败血症的死亡风险是由血小板计数,D-二次数和CALLY指数预测的. 一种新的名谱模型有助于早期识别高风险儿童,以改善结果.
科学领域:
- 儿科重症监护医药 儿科重症监护医药
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 儿科败血症是一种危及生命的疾病,需要早期风险分层.
- 确定临床特征和死亡风险因素对于改善患者的治疗结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查儿科败血症临床特征和死亡风险因素.
- 开发一个预测模型,用于早期识别高风险的儿科败血症患者.
主要方法:
- 对143例儿科败血症病例进行了回顾性队列研究.
- 后勤回归分析以确定死亡率的独立风险因素.
- 使用ROC曲线分析构建和验证名图.使用ROC曲线分析.
主要成果:
- 血小板计数,D-二次数和CALLY指数被确定为死亡的独立风险因素.
- 诺莫格拉姆模型表现出良好的预测准确性 (AUC = 0.859).
- 在幸存者和非幸存者之间观察到淋巴细胞计数,血小板计数,白蛋白,D-二次体,肝功能,CALLY指数和葡萄糖皮质激素使用的显著差异.
结论:
- 血小板计数,D-二次数和CALLY指数是儿科败血症中有价值的预后指标.
- 开发的诺米图表作为临床决策和风险分层的有用工具.
- 建议进行进一步的多中心前性研究以验证.
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