通过两阶段随机编程和机器学习技术来提高情报源性能管理.
Lucas Wafula Wekesa1, Stephen Korir1
1Strathmore Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Strathmore University, Nairobi, Kenya.
Frontiers in big data
|October 8, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了一种使用机器学习和双阶段随机编程来管理人类智能 (HUMINT) 源性能在不确定性中的混合框架. 该方法优化了任务分配,降低了成本,提高了任务成功率.
科学领域:
- 情报研究 情报研究
- 运营研究 运营研究
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 人类情报 (HUMINT) 源的可靠性对于情报行动至关重要,但往往是不可预测的.
- 源行为中的不确定性使资源分配和任务分配的决策变得复杂.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种混合框架,用于在不确定性下管理HUMINT源性能.
- 优化任务分配并减轻与不可预测的源行为相关的风险.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个混合框架,将机器学习 (ML) 和双阶段随机编程 (TSSP) 结合起来.
- 利用极端梯度增强 (XGBoost) 和支持向量机器 (SVM) 进行行为分类和可靠性/欺骗预测.
- 将预测输出作为场景概率集成到TSSP模型中,以优化任务分配.
主要成果:
- 在行为分类中实现了98%的准确性;回归模型产生了93% (可靠性) 和81% (欺骗性) 的R平方得分.
- 与确定性方法相比,混合框架将预期的任务分配成本降低了16.8%,任务成功率提高了19.3%.
结论:
- 基于场景的概率规划在管理HUMINT操作不确定性方面显著优于静态启发式.
- 开发的框架显示了加强HUMINT操作的希望,需要通过现场数据进一步验证.
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