在普通中估计高度致病性禽流感的流行病学参数,使用准确的贝叶斯推断推断
David A Ewing1, Sandra Bouwhuis2
1Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Edinburgh, UK.
The Journal of animal ecology
|October 9, 2025
概括
野生中的高度致病性禽流感 (HPAI) 爆发表明,鸟对鸟的传播是关键. 管理策略,如尸体移除和息地改善,可以减少HPAI在海鸟群落中的传播.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 野生动物疾病 野生动物疾病
背景情况:
- 高致病性禽流感 (HPAI) 在2021年开始的近期泛禽流感期间造成了野生鸟类,特别是海鸟的大量死亡.
- 了解HPAI流行病学参数,如生殖数 (R0),在野生种群中至关重要,但由于数据收集困难,具有挑战性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种方法来准确的贝叶斯参数推断HPAI在野生鸟种群的方法.
- 估计包括R0和死亡概率在内的关键流行病学参数,用于普通殖民地HPAI爆发.
主要方法:
- 使用可逆跳转马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛 (rjMCMC) 进行贝叶斯参数推理.
- 在2022年和2023年的疫情期间,将该方法应用于普通 (Sterna hirundo) 殖民地每日尸体计数数据.
主要成果:
- 预计2022年的R0值为3.7 (95%CI为2.37.2),2023年的R0值为3.2 (95%CI为1.77.0).
- 观察到感染鸟类的死亡概率从2022年的0.26 (95% CI 0.240.28) 降低到2023年的0.14 (95% CI 0.110.20).
- 确定直接的鸟对鸟传播是HPAI在殖民地内的传播的主要驱动因素,环境传播是可以忽略的.
结论:
- 直接的鸟与鸟接触是HPAI在常见天殖民地的主要传播途径.
- 移除尸体可能会限制环境传播;增加免疫力或菌株变异可能解释死亡率降低.
- 通过改善繁殖息地以降低密度来促进"社会距离",对于在殖民地繁殖海鸟中减轻HPAI至关重要.
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