老年人中COVID-19严重性的联合空间建模:使用加拿大安大略省卫生行政数据的贝叶斯式共享组件方法
Nushrat Nazia1, Charmaine Dean1
1Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave W, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada.
Annals of epidemiology
|October 9, 2025
概括
老年人的COVID-19结果因社会经济因素而异,物质贫困和种族化/新移民地区的风险更高. 调查结果揭示了结构性不平等,并为有针对性的流行病准备战略提供了信息.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 监测老年人的不良COVID-19结果对于评估疫情严重程度至关重要.
- 社会经济和人口因素影响COVID-19的结果,可能在空间上同时发生,以表明共享风险.
研究的目的:
- 在安大略省的老年人中共同监测严重的COVID-19结果.
- 确定这些结果的空间模式和社会经济/人口因素.
主要方法:
- 在安大略省65岁以上的成年人中分析严重的COVID-19结果 (2020年1月至2022年3月).
- 利用了来自安大略省卫生数据平台 (ICES) 的数据.
- 在前期分类区域层面采用贝叶斯共享组件模型,结合社会经济和人口统计 covariates.
主要成果:
- 一个共享的组件解释了严重的COVID-19结果中大约75%的空间变化.
- 高风险地区集中在安大略省南部,中部和北部地区风险较低.
- 物质剥夺和种族化/新移民人口度与死亡和住院的风险增加有关,而较高比例的老年人与住院相反相关.
结论:
- 这项研究强调了老年人大流行严重性的重大结构性不平等.
- 研究结果支持制定针对性,以公平为导向的战略,以应对流行病的准备和应对.
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