传统和混合时间序列模型用于预测药物分发和错误集成在自动化分发柜中的错误集成
Abbas Al Mutair1,2, Kawther Taleb1, Mrs Kawthar Alsaleh1,2
1Research Center, Almoosa Specialist Hospital, 36342, Al-Ahsa, Saudi Arabia.
Scientific reports
|October 10, 2025
概括
混合机器学习模型准确地预测自动化分发柜 (ADC) 的性能. NPAR-ANN模型在预测物品分配,覆盖和错误方面表现出色,为优化药物管理提供数据驱动的见解.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健技术 医疗保健技术 医疗保健技术
- 数据科学是数据科学.
- 时间序列预测时间序列预测
背景情况:
- 自动化药柜 (ADC) 对于医院中有效和安全的药物管理至关重要.
- 优化ADC性能是必不可少的,因为越来越依赖这些系统.
- 关键绩效指标 (KPIs),如项目分配,覆盖和错误,需要准确的预测.
研究的目的:
- 应用和比较常规,混合时间序列和机器学习模型,用于预测ADC关键关键指标.
- 确定最准确的模型来预测项目分配,覆盖事件和错误集成.
- 为优化医院药物管理提供数据驱动的见解.
主要方法:
- 使用了2023年1月至2024年12月的每月数据,用于医院MICU中的ADC.
- 采用传统的时间序列模型 (ARIMA,指数平滑,Theta) 和机器学习模型 (NPAR,ANN).
- 使用RMSE,MAE,MAPE和RMSLE进行评估的混合配置 (ARIMA-ANN,EMS-ANN,NPAR-ANN),启动时CI为95%.
主要成果:
- 与其他模型相比,混合NPAR-ANN模型表现出优异的预测性能.
- NPAR-ANN实现了最低的RMSE值:分配的项目为71.50,覆盖的项目为15.43,错误集成的项目为20.92.
- 这表明NPAR-ANN在预测关键ADC参数方面的有效性.
结论:
- 混合机器学习模型,特别是NPAR-ANN,为预测ADC性能指标提供了先进的功能.
- 准确预测ADC关键指标可以为医院的决策提供信息,并加强药物管理策略.
- 这项研究强调了来自医疗保健运营复杂建模的数据驱动洞察力的价值.
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