基于贝叶斯统计方法的TBM道挖掘的干扰风险预警模型
Shuang-Jing Wang1,2, Le-Chen Wang1, Lei-Jie Wu3
1Key Laboratory of Urban Underground Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, 100044, China.
Scientific reports
|October 10, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了一个新的框架来预测道钻机 (TBM) 的干扰. 它使用实时数据和新型索引以95%的准确度识别干扰风险,提高道安全.
科学领域:
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
- 地质技术工程 地质技术工程
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 道钻井机 (TBM) 的运行面临着严重的阻塞事故风险.
- 准确预测TBM干扰对于项目效率和安全至关重要.
- 现有的风险评估方法通常依赖于单个参数,限制准确性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个全面的阻塞风险评估框架,用于TBM挖掘.
- 提出一种使用实时无聊数据和贝叶斯概率的新型风险预警模型.
- 通过改进阻塞预测,提高道工程的安全性和效率.
主要方法:
- 挖掘参数的统计分析,以确定堵塞模式.
- 引入一个全面的干扰感知指数 (η),合成多个参数.
- 开发一个定量模型来计算干扰概率,考虑到样本大小的差异.
主要成果:
- 一个干扰感知指数 (η) 实现了 95% 的干扰状态识别率.
- 定量模型提供了现实的干扰概率估计 (94%在干扰段,7%在正常段).
- 第三类周围岩石被确定为最适合挖掘的岩石,阻塞概率最低.
结论:
- 拟议的框架为预测和管理TBM阻塞事故提供了一种实际方法.
- 对多个参数的综合分析显著提高了干扰风险评估的准确性.
- 地质条件是缓解TBM阻塞风险的关键因素,强调需要仔细规划挖掘.
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