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人工智能评估了以自然为基础的在丘陵地形的抗洪能力
Abdelkader Mabrouk1, Inamullah Inam2, Muhammad Zeeshan Qureshi3
1Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Northern Border University, 73222, Arar, Saudi Arabia. abdjih2019@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|October 10, 2025
概括
基于自然的解决方案 (NBS) 有效地减少了山区的突发洪水. 人工智能 (AI) 模型,特别是随机森林,通过预测峰值排放,优化洪水抵御能力,显示柔性植被的优越性能.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源工程 水文和水资源工程
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 环境管理中的人工智能
背景情况:
- 丘陵地形面临重大突发洪水风险,需要可持续和成本有效的管理策略.
- 基于自然的解决方案 (NBS) 提供了可持续性,但在各种水文条件下需要严格的评估.
- 优化这些环境中的抗洪能力需要先进的预测能力.
研究的目的:
- 探索NBS在缓解丘陵地形的洪水中的有效性.
- 利用人工智能 (AI) 预测峰值排放并增强抗洪能力.
- 为了比较不同的人工智能模型和植被类型在洪水管理中的性能.
主要方法:
- 采用了两个先进的AI模型:随机森林 (RF) 和支持向量回归 (SVR).
- 评估的实验室规模数据序列包括斜率,降雨强度 (P) 和时间比 (T/Tc) 对于柔性 (FV) 和刚性植被 (RV).
- 使用性能指标 (RMSE,R2,MAE),SHAP分析和蒙特卡洛模拟用于模型评估和特征重要性.
主要成果:
- 灵活的植被表明,由于透和表面阻力增加,峰值排放减少了8%.
- 与SVR相比,RF模型显示出更高的预测准确性 (FV的R2为0.9809,RV为0.9906)
- 时间比率显著影响了峰值排放预测,其次是降雨强度,如SHAP分析所示.
结论:
- 由人工智能驱动的模型显著提高了NBS在丘陵地形的抗洪能力.
- 该研究强调了植被类型,特别是柔性植被在洪水减缓方面的重要性.
- 建议城市规划者和政策制定者采用人工智能驱动的方法来管理复杂的非线性水文现象.
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