在印度西北部,基于Copula的气象干旱风险评估
Yogesh Kumar1, Shekhar Singh2, Anil Kumar1
1Department of Soil & Water Conservation Engineering, Govind Ballabh Pant University of Agriculture & Technology, Pantnagar, 263145, Uttarakhand, India.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|October 10, 2025
概括
这项研究使用了标准化降水蒸发指数 (SPEI) 和形理论来分析印度拉贾斯坦邦的气象干旱. 双变量分析显示,在并发条件下,干旱风险更高,这对于弹性战略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 水文学和气候学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 气象干旱对印度拉贾斯坦邦的雨水农业构成重大威胁.
- 评估干旱特征及其共同概率对于有效的风险管理和减缓策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了评估在拉贾斯坦邦的气象干旱使用标准化降雨蒸发透气指数 (SPEI) 在各种时间尺度.
- 应用形理论来分析干旱特征 (持续时间,严重程度,峰值,强度) 的联合行为.
- 加强干旱风险监测并为决策提供信息,以尽量减少干旱影响和荒漠化.
主要方法:
- 在1,3,6,9和12个月的时间尺度上计算SPEI.
- 使用运行理论识别干旱特征并拟合边际分布 (选择了Log-Normal).
- 使用copula函数构建双变概率分布,其中Bivariate Clayton Copula被确定为最合适的.
主要成果:
- 克莱顿·科普拉有效地模拟了干旱特征的联合行为.
- 使用"AND"情况 (同时干旱) 的干旱风险评估显示,回归期比"OR"情况要长得多.
- 分析强调了双变量分析对于理解复合干旱风险的关键重要性.
结论:
- 双变干旱分析提供了更可靠的风险评估,这对于开发有效的干旱性战略至关重要.
- 这些发现为改善干旱风险监测和干旱和半干旱地区的决策过程提供了宝贵的见解.
- 这项研究有助于减轻干旱的影响,并制雨水农业地区的荒漠化.
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