瘤学工作人员的种族和民族多样性:从2020年到2060年的预测
William L Roberts1, Pamela R Soulos2, Jeph Herrin3
1National Clinician Scholars Program, New Haven, CT.
JCO oncology practice
|October 11, 2025
概括
在癌症医生劳动力中,种族和民族在医学中的代表性不足 (URiM) 仍然存在. 预测显示,到2060年,URiM医生仍将显著低于人口平价,即使增长加速.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健 劳动力多样性 医疗保健 劳动力多样性
- 医学教育和培训 医学教育和培训
- 健康 公平 研究 健康 公平 研究
背景情况:
- 在医学 (URiM) 中种族和民族代表性不足对提供公平的癌症护理构成了重大挑战.
- 目前的癌症医生劳动力缺乏多样性,反映了医疗保健中的更广泛差异.
研究的目的:
- 到2060年,预测癌症医生劳动力的未来种族和民族多样性.
- 评估不同增长场景对URIM代表性的影响.
- 为了确定与美国人口实现平价所需的增长率.
主要方法:
- 利用2020年美国医学协会和美国医学院协会的数据进行劳动力组成分析.
- 采用库存和流量模型来根据基线,轨迹和翻倍场景预测劳动力人口统计数据.
- 计算的代表比率 (RR) 和估计的医生增长需要平价.
主要成果:
- 2020年,URiM医生占癌症工作人员的11.3%,远低于美国31%的人口份额.
- 预测表明,到2060年,URIM的代表性将达到12.5% (基线) 到19.1% (翻倍情景).
- 到2060年实现人口平价需要每年增加9.5%的URiM医生进入劳动力.
结论:
- 尽管有各种招聘场景,但在2060年,URiM在癌症医生劳动力中的代表性不会与美国人口相等.
- 需要采取重大干预措施,以解决URIM个体在瘤学中的持续不足.
- 这些发现强调了需要有针对性的策略来增强癌症护理医生管道中的多样性.
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