预测气候变化对东亚盐沼地区Suaeda japonica分布的影响,使用集体建模
Seongjun Bae1, Ji Min Kim1, Hye Seon Kim1
1Department of Ecology and Conservation, National Marine Biodiversity Institute of Korea, Seocheon, 33662, South Korea.
The Science of the total environment
|October 11, 2025
概括
气候变化威胁到沼泽的类植物,比如日本. 未来的预测显示,东亚的息地转移,中国的潜在增加,韩国和日本的潜在减少,需要适应性保护.
科学领域:
- 生态学和环境科学生态学和环境科学
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
- 生物多样性保护 生物多样性保护
背景情况:
- 盐沼提供了重要的生态系统服务,包括碳捕获和海岸保护.
- 对于盐沼生态系统至关重要的植物物种,由于气候变化而面临息地丧失.
- 日式是一种东亚盐沼地的重要组成部分.
研究的目的:
- 预测不同气候变化情景下的东亚Suaeda japonica的当前和未来息地分布.
- 为了确定影响Suaeda japonica分布的关键环境变量.
- 为应对气候变化而为植物物种制定保护战略.
主要方法:
- 整合物种分布建模,整合随机森林,通用增强模型,通用添加模型和最大.
- 从最初的48个环境变量中系统地选择了8个关键环境变量.
- 根据2050年和2100年的SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5气候场景,预测息地的适宜性.
主要成果:
- 整体模型显示出出色的预测性能 (TSS = 0.987,ROC = 0.999).
- 温度范围是影响分布的最重要的环境变量.
- 目前最佳息地沿着韩国西海岸和日本九州.
- 未来的预测表明,在SSP5-8.5下,到2100年分布逆转,中国东部的适合性增加,传统的据点的适合性减少.
结论:
- 预计到2100年,气候变化将大大改变Suaeda japonica在东亚的分布.
- 保护工作必须考虑保护现有的核心种群和恢复新适合地区的息地.
- 这些发现凸显了急需蓝色碳管理和植物物种保护战略的迫切需要.
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