吸烟导致的肺癌死亡率:一个多场景分析,具有可变的滞后期
María Isolina Santiago-Pérez1, Carla Guerra-Tort2, Esther López-Vizcaíno3
1Health Information Service, Directorate-General of Public Health, Galician Regional Health Authority - Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
Annals of epidemiology
|October 11, 2025
概括
估计肺癌吸烟导致的死亡率 (SAM) 需要仔细考虑方法. 使用具有15或20年滞后的患病率依赖方法 (PDM) 提供了比其他方法更高的SAM估计.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 估计吸烟导致的死亡率 (SAM) 涉及各种假设,这些假设可能会影响结果.
- 肺癌死亡率是与吸烟有关的重大公共卫生问题.
研究的目的:
- 评估可归因于吸烟的肺癌死亡率,使用流行程度独立 (PIM) 和流行程度依赖的方法 (PDM).
- 为了比较来自PDM的SAM估计,与不同的暴露结果滞后 (0,15,和20年) 与PIM相比.
主要方法:
- 在西班牙,人口归因分数 (PAF) 和肺癌SAM计算为2011-2020年.
- 分析了四种情景:没有滞后的PDM,15年滞后,20年滞后和PIM.
主要成果:
- 20年滞后的PDM产生了最高的SAM (173,526人死亡),而PIM产生了最低的 (157,390人死亡).
- 在男性中,PAF随着PDM滞后时间的增加 (20年滞后的92.3%) 与PIM (87.3%) 相比增加.
- 在女性中,PAF范围从57.3% (PIM) 到79.4% (20年滞后的PDM).
结论:
- 根据所选择的方法和滞后期,对肺癌的SAM估计有很大差异.
- 包含15年或20年滞后的流行度依赖方法导致更高的SAM估计.
- 准确的SAM估计需要利用吸烟流行数据,在暴露和结果之间进行适当的延迟时间.
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