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总气候变化风险和银行贷款组合:新证据和扩展
Naif Alsagr1, Nicholas Apergis2
1Humanities and Social Sciences Research Center (HSSRC), Deanship of Scientific Research, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Journal of environmental management
|October 12, 2025
概括
气候变化包括物理危险和过渡风险,大大增加了银行贷款组合的脆弱性. 银行面临着更高的违约风险,影响金融稳定和暴露行业获得融资的机会.
科学领域:
- 银行和金融业的银行和金融业.
- 环境风险管理环境风险管理
- 气候变化经济学 气候变化经济学
背景情况:
- 过渡到净零经济需要大量投资,增加对银行融资的需求.
- 与气候有关的风险,无论是物理的还是过渡性的,对金融机构和企业借款人构成重大威胁.
- 由于气候变化而增加的违约风险可能会导致银行限制贷款供应,影响企业获得资本的机会.
研究的目的:
- 分析物理风险和过渡性气候风险对美国银行企业贷款组合的同时影响.
- 调查气候政策暴露对行业进入金融市场的影响.
- 量化银行贷款组合对气候相关金融风险的脆弱性.
主要方法:
- 利用了2012年至2023年美国银行贷款组合的季度数据.
- 通过估计气候政策对利能力的影响来量化银行对物理和过渡风险的风险.
- 采用固定效应面板方法和详细的风险与贷款投资组合的部门脆弱性相匹配.
主要成果:
- 预计过渡政策和物理危险都会随着时间的推移放大银行贷款组合的脆弱性.
- 据估计,物理风险增加1%将使贷款组合的脆弱性增加5%-12%,取决于政策情景.
- 金融准入对银行贷款风险有显著的积极影响,这表明气候风险影响了企业的融资准入.
结论:
- 气候变化风险,无论是物理风险还是与过渡有关的风险,都会对银行业产生系统性影响.
- 银行和监管机构需要掌握可持续金融的动态,以减轻与气候有关的金融风险.
- 为银行提供建议,以便在不断变化的环境挑战中适应和壮成长.
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