波克斯疫情的全球传播特征:系统性审查和元分析
Shunzhe Wu1, Jie Deng1,2, Min Du1
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, China.
EClinicalMedicine
|October 13, 2025
概括
全球健康威胁的mpox随着每个感染者将病毒传播给另外两个人而扩散. 长时间的潜伏期和连续间隔使控制工作复杂化,需要加强对高风险群体的监测.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 莫波克斯是一种由莫波克斯病毒引起的动物性疾病,于1970年首次在人类身上被发现.
- 从历史上看,mpox是中部和西非的特有病,自2022年以来,mpox已经成为全球流行病.
- 莫波克斯病毒对全球公共卫生构成重大和持续的威胁.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定mopox病毒的关键传播参数.
- 为全世界的科学预防和控制策略提供证据.
- 在全球范围内分析mopox传输动态.
主要方法:
- 系统性文献审查mopox和monkeypox研究,直到2025年2月.
- 提取四个关键参数:基本繁殖数 (R0),有效繁殖数 (Rt),潜伏期和序列间隔.
- 使用固定效应或随机效应模型的元分析,对汇总估计的哈图恩-纳普 (HKSJ) 置信区间进行了分析.
主要成果:
- 聚合R0:2.13,聚合Rt:2.51,平均潜伏期:9.21天,平均连续间隔:12.00天.
- 与一般人口 (2.20) 相比,与男性发生性关系的男性 (MSM) (3.08) 观察到更高的Rt.
- 在MSM和普通人群之间的潜伏期或序列间隔没有显著差异.
结论:
- 马波克斯病毒的传播表明,每个病例感染了另外两个病例,有助于持续传播.
- 延长的潜伏期和连续间隔对mopox预防和控制提出了挑战.
- 建议包括加强对高风险人群的早期监测和预警系统,以减轻传播.
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