致病研究中的因果推断建模的应用和报告:系统性审查
Yukiko Ezure1, Mark Chatfield2, David L Paterson3,4
1University of Queensland School of Public Health, Herston, QLD, Australia.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|October 13, 2025
概括
因果推断方法在传染病流行病学中越来越多地使用,但报告的差异很大. 制定明确的指导方针和培训对于准确应用和解释这些复杂的分析至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 因果推断在传染病 (ID) 流行病学中越来越受欢迎.
- 缺乏对其实施趋势,估计方法和规格的全面审查.
- 了解实际应用可以揭示成功的策略和常见的陷.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查观察性ID研究中因果推断方法的使用和报告.
- 详细说明采用趋势,并评估2010年至2023年期间报告的全面性.
- 在ID研究中确定常见的因果推理方法及其理由.
主要方法:
- 在PubMed,Medline,科学网和Scopus的系统文献搜索.
- 分析了2010年至2023年间发表的172项观察性ID研究.
- 专注于采用趋势,报告的完整性和使用的特定因果关系方法.
主要成果:
- 基于倾向分数的方法是最常见的 (77%).
- 只有39项研究明确描述了因果框架和分析.
- 对于时间变化的变量,经常使用边际结构模型和目标最大概率估计的反向概率治疗权重.
结论:
- 在ID研究中报告因果关系方法存在实质性的差异.
- 需要标准化报告准则和加强培训.
- 更清晰的报告和培训对于复杂的ID建模中准确的因果推理至关重要.
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