有限理性的父母对新儿童免疫接种的接种游戏
Wei Yin1, Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah2,3, Tamer Oraby1
1School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, USA.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|October 13, 2025
概括
了解疫苗犹是控制传染病的关键. 这项研究模拟了父母的行为,揭示了社会规范和降低疫苗成本显著增加了疫苗接受率和疾病根除概率.
科学领域:
- 传染病的数学建模 传染病的数学建模
- 人口动态和游戏理论
- 公共卫生政策和行为科学
背景情况:
- 传染病对公众健康和社会福祉构成重大威胁.
- 疫苗的犹和不遵守公共卫生建议阻碍了疾病控制工作.
- 现有的疾病传播模型往往缺乏对人类行为因素的强有力的整合.
研究的目的:
- 介绍关于儿童免疫接种的父母行为新模式.
- 将这种行为模型与儿童疾病的标准易受感染恢复 (SIR) 模型集成.
- 分析疫苗接受的动态及其对疾病根除的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一种新的家长行为模式,结合社会特征,社会规范和有限的理性.
- 将行为模型与SIR模型集成,以模拟儿童疾病动态.
- 使用人口游戏理论的分析,产生一个复制器动态方程与类似的术语.
主要成果:
- 该模型强调了社会规范和有限的理性在疫苗接种中的关键作用.
- 一个新的概念,即"关键的社会疫苗成本",被确定,影响疾病消除.
- 低于这一门的疫苗成本和高的初始接受率提高了疾病根除的概率.
结论:
- 社会规范和有限的理性是疫苗接受和疾病控制的关键决定因素.
- 适应性政策,如疫苗接种成本的逐步增加,可以帮助消除疾病.
- 强有力的社会规范和低限的理性促进了疾病的根除,即使是具有高基本生殖数量的疾病.
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