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在桥梁运营中风险传播的数据驱动层次因果建模:来自中国132起事故的证据
Peng Peng1, Zuocai Wang1,2, Peng Cui3,4
1School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, China.
Frontiers in public health
|October 13, 2025
概括
老化的桥梁安全受到相互关联的风险的威胁. 本研究确定了基础管理问题和直接危险,为有针对性的安全策略和改进基础设施管理提供了数据驱动的层次结构.
科学领域:
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 基础设施安全 基础设施安全
背景情况:
- 老化的桥梁面临着因延长使用寿命和环境因素而增加的安全风险.
- 现有的安全评估往往缺乏系统性视图,无法捕捉风险因素相互作用.
- 这限制了制定有效的桥梁运行安全战略.
研究的目的:
- 识别和组织影响运营环境中的桥梁安全的关键风险因素.
- 开发一个数据驱动的层次模型来理解风险传播.
- 为桥梁管理中针对性的安全干预提供路线图.
主要方法:
- 从中国国家安全数据库中利用了132份 (2007-2024) 事故报告.
- 应用文本挖掘,专家研讨会和协会规则挖掘,用于风险因素识别和关系分析.
- 员工决策试验和评估实验室 (DEMATEL) 与对抗性解释结构建模 (AISM) 集成,以构建因果层次结构.
主要成果:
- 确定了19个不同的风险因素,分为7个层次结构,有20条传播途径.
- 基本因素包括信息化管理不足和不合格的管理能力.
- 直接触发因素包括过重的车辆,检查/维护不足以及地质/气象危险.
结论:
- 该研究建立了一个明确的传播链,从管理缺陷到桥梁安全的表面层面危险.
- 这些发现有助于对基础设施中的风险相互作用机制的理论理解.
- 为基础设施安全管理人员提供实用见解,以加强数字系统,交通管制和应急准备.
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