相关实验视频
Updated: Jan 15, 2026
12:44
Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
8.4K
什么时候基于预测的保险会带来好处? 对干旱风险预期保险的经济分析
Vaibhav Anand1, Leah Poole-Selters2, Alexa Gozdiff Spognardi3
1Greenberg School of Risk Management, Tobin College of Business, St. John's University, New York, USA.
The Geneva papers on risk and insurance. Issues and practice
|October 13, 2025
概括
预期指数保险可以帮助国家在灾难发生之前及早采取行动. 然而,它的好处取决于预测的准确性,并且可能并不总是超过基于基准风险的成本.
科学领域:
- 灾害风险管理 灾害风险管理
- 气候融资就是气候融资.
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
背景情况:
- 传统的灾难融资往往是事后反应性的.
- 在许多国家,有限的运营能力阻碍了早期行动.
- 预测技术的进步使预测行动成为可能.
研究的目的:
- 检查灾难风险预期指数保险的优缺点.
- 评估基于不完美的预测的早期行动与灾后救援之间的权衡.
- 确定预期保险对发展中国家有利的条件.
主要方法:
- 风格化的经济建模.
- 马拉维和赞比亚干旱风险的数值分析.
- 评估非洲风险能力的试点计划.
主要成果:
- 预期保险的主要价值在于建立基于预测的早期行动的运营能力.
- 不完善的预测增加了基准风险,可能加剧了早期行动和灾后救援之间的权衡.
- 来自保险支付的增值值可能不会始终证明由于基准风险而导致的保费成本是合理的.
结论:
- 预期指数保险可以成为灾难风险融资的宝贵工具,特别是在能力建设方面.
- 政府和援助机构在设计早期行动融资策略时,需要仔细考虑基准风险和运营能力.
- 优化融资策略需要平衡保险费用成本与及时,基于预测的干预措施的好处.
相关概念视频
02:41Responses to Drought and Flooding
11.9K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
11.9K
01:16What is Climate?
20.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
20.4K
01:17Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
285
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
285
01:03Prediction Intervals
3.3K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
3.3K
01:18Steps in Outbreak Investigation
488
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
488
01:17Precipitation and Co-precipitation
4.0K
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...
4.0K