高速公路冲突风险机制,考虑车辆组和道路段之间的相互作用
Ling Wang1, Jiajin He1, Yunfan Zhang2
1The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, PR China.
Traffic injury prevention
|October 13, 2025
概括
高速公路冲突风险是双向的街道. 高风险的车辆组增加了道路段风险,而危险的道路段增加了车辆组风险,揭示了交互机制.
科学领域:
- 交通工程是交通工程.
- 道路交通安全 道路交通安全
- 运输系统分析 运输系统分析
背景情况:
- 以前的高速公路冲突风险研究主要集中在道路段或独立的车辆组上.
- 车辆组行为和道路段特征在风险传播中的相互作用在很大程度上是未被探索的.
研究的目的:
- 分析高速公路上车辆组和道路段之间的冲突风险的交互机制.
- 开发综合模型,以更准确地预测高速公路冲突风险.
主要方法:
- 利用高分辨率的车辆轨迹数据,为车辆组和道路段建立单独的冲突风险预测模型.
- 应用可解释性算法来分析下游因素对上游风险的影响.
- 研究了车辆组特征对道路段风险的影响,反之亦然.
主要成果:
- 车辆组特征显著影响道路段冲突风险,当下游存在高风险组时,风险增加约6%.
- 下游道路段风险向上游传播,影响车辆组的行为,并增加其冲突风险高达29%.
结论:
- 车辆组和道路段在高速公路冲突风险的传播上有动态相互作用.
- 整合这两个维度对于加强冲突风险预测和分析至关重要.
- 这项研究通过考虑车辆动态和基础设施之间的相互作用,为高速公路安全提供了新的视角.
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