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校准因果特异绝对风险进行外部验证,使用每个因果特异危险模型在存在竞争事件时进行校准
Sarwar I Mozumder1,2, Sarah Booth1, Richard D Riley3,4
1Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
Diagnostic and prognostic research
|October 14, 2025
概括
对竞争性风险的准确预测模型需要使用因果特定危险评估校准. 这种方法识别了预测个别因果特定和全因果绝对风险的模型中的校准错误.
科学领域:
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物医学数据科学 生物医学数据科学
背景情况:
- 评估预后模型的校准对于可靠的风险预测至关重要.
- 竞争性风险数据需要仔细的模型规范,以确保对感兴趣事件的准确预测.
- 对多个事件 (兴趣,竞争,所有原因) 的校准同时评估是必不可少的.
研究的目的:
- 提出和说明一种方法来评估在外部验证设置与竞争风险预测模型的校准.
- 通过评估因果特异性危险模型的组件来识别错误指定的模型.
- 为同时评估对特定原因和所有原因绝对风险的校准提供指导.
主要方法:
- 使用因果特异性危险方法进行预测模型的外部验证.
- 建议使用每个因果特异模型的组件和因果特异生存的补充来评估错误校准.
- 采用模拟来识别错误的模型,使用校准图,统计 (斜率,大尺度校准) 和伪观察来计算风险.
主要成果:
- 外部验证中的错误校准,源于基线原因特定危险的变化,通过特定原因模型组件有效地识别.
- 一个错误校准的特定原因模型可能会对所有原因的预测绝对风险的校准产生负面影响,包括所有原因风险.
- 感兴趣的事件和竞争事件之间的相互作用会影响因果特定绝对风险的预测.
结论:
- 使用因果特异性危险方法开发和验证模型是准确预测所有因果和因果特异性绝对风险的最佳方法.
- 建议单独评估每个特定原因模型的校准图,使用特定原因生存函数的补充,以确定校准错误.
- 在采用这种方法时,需要仔细考虑和考虑依赖性审查.
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