阿拉斯加的泥炭火灾将在本世纪末增加一倍
Mark Jason Lara1,2, Roger Michaelides3, Duncan Anderson4
1Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA. mjlara@illinois.edu.
Scientific reports
|October 14, 2025
概括
阿拉斯加阿拉斯加阿拉斯加阿拉斯加
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 由于温暖干燥的夏季,阿拉斯加的野火和泥炭火灾正在增加.
- 由于泥炭地图和气候数据的局限性,预测泥炭火灾动态具有挑战性.
- 了解泥炭火灾的行为对于管理这些生态系统的碳排放至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估控制阿拉斯加过去和未来泥炭火灾活动的气候和环境因素.
- 利用新的高分辨率的泥炭地图来改进火灾动态预测.
- 在不同的气候变化情景下,预测未来的燃烧泥炭地面积.
主要方法:
- 采用集体机器学习模型来识别泥炭火灾活动的关键预测因素.
- 用阿拉斯加的高分辨率泥炭地图进行空间分析.
- 使用来自代表度路径 (RCP) 4.5,6.0 和 8.5.5 的气候数据集的强制模型.
主要成果:
- 降低土壤水分,更高的温度和增加的蒸发转化被确定为烧毁泥炭地面积的主要驱动因素.
- 预计到21世纪末,全州燃烧的泥炭地将翻一番 (61-121%的增长).
- 预计在极地,北极和海洋生态区域中,烧毁的泥炭地将在区域内显著增加.
结论:
- 预计未来的野火将越来越多地影响阿拉斯加的潮湿泥炭地.
- 扩大土壤碳排放是泥炭火灾活动增加的潜在后果.
- 气候变化显著加剧了阿拉斯加泥炭火灾的风险和范围.
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