掠食者和猎物的食相互作用以及丹麦高致病性禽流感病毒的季节性,2016-2023年
Gemma Hancock1, Carsten Kirkeby2, Lene Jung Kjær2
1Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, Australia.
Zoonoses and public health
|October 15, 2025
概括
捕食鸟类在冬季和春季比捕食物种更有可能感染高致病性禽流感病毒 (HPAIV). 这一发现建议调整野生鸟类中HPAIV的监测策略.
科学领域:
- 兽医病毒学 兽医病毒学
- 野生动物流行病学
- 疾病生态学 疾病生态学
背景情况:
- 据假设,鸟类种群之间的性相互作用可以驱动高度致病性禽流感病毒 (HPAIV) 的传播.
- 现场证据支持禽流感病毒 (AIV) 的热带传播仍然有限.
研究的目的:
- 调查热带相互作用在野生鸟种群中HPAIV传播中的作用.
- 分析捕食者与捕食鸟种类中HPAIV病例的时间模式.
主要方法:
- 在丹麦 (2016-2023) 掠食性和猎物野生鸟类之间的HPAIV病例时间的比较.
- 将物种分类为"掠食者" (案例) 或"猎物" (控制).
- 利用扫描统计数据用于空间集群识别和后勤回归用于风险分析.
主要成果:
- 与秋季相比,捕食物种在冬季,春季和夏季报告HPAIV的几率更高.
- 在控制了时间和空间因素后,捕食者风险在冬季和春季仍然很高.
- 捕食者HPAIV报告的几率比率在冬季 (12.1) 和春季 (21.5) 与秋季相比显著更高.
结论:
- 捕食物种似乎在HPAIV传播季节的晚些时候被感染,而不是猎物物种.
- 对HPAIV的监测系统可以通过针对秋季的猎物物种和冬季/春季的捕食者来优化.
- 通过考虑受影响物种的季节性变化及其空间分布,可以实现提高HPAIV监测灵敏度.
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