全球供应链压力是否影响能源需求:气候风险暴露的缓解作用
Zeng Aiqing1, Zeng Jianhui1, Avik Sinha2
1School of Accounting, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha, 410205, China.
Journal of environmental management
|October 15, 2025
概括
全球供应链压力显著增加了发展中国家的能源需求. 气候风险和能源政策进一步影响了这种关系,突出了对弹性能源战略的需求.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 能源政策 能源政策
背景情况:
- 能源需求越来越容易受到外部冲击的影响,影响供应安全,系统效率和环境可持续性.
- 在全球经济波动的背景下,发展中国家在管理能源需求方面面临着独特的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 调查全球供应链压力 (GSCP) 对54个发展中国家能源需求 (ENG) 的影响.
- 分析气候风险暴露对GSCP-ENG关系的缓解作用.
- 评估全球能源政策在塑造能源需求方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用了1998年至2024年54个发展中国家的数据.
- 采用了机器学习技术的最小绝对收缩和选择运算符 (LASSO).
- 解决了使用交叉拟合部分分外仪表变量LASSO模型的内源性问题.
主要成果:
- 在GSCP的1%的增长与ENG的0.31%的增长相关.
- 气候风险暴露显著减轻了GSCP对ENG的影响.
- 全球能源政策,如技术协作计划,公正过渡倡议和蒙特利尔议定书,在影响NGE方面表现出有效性.
结论:
- 多样化供应链和整合气候风险管理对于能源政策至关重要.
- 加强努力实现可持续发展目标 (SDG) 7可以减轻供应链冲击带来的风险.
- 政策制定者必须调整能源战略,以应对全球经济和环境挑战.
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