[中国能源消费碳排放的演变和模拟预测]
Wei-Hua Guan1,2, Hui Xu1, Huan-Lan Li1
1School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|October 15, 2025
概括
中国的能源消耗和碳排放量呈现波动性的增长,北方高,南方低. 协调发展提供了到2029年达到峰值排放的最佳途径.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 经济发展驱动能源消费,导致不受控制的碳排放.
- 精确监测和估计区域能源消耗的碳排放是实现碳峰值目标的关键.
研究的目的:
- 测量和分析中国能源消耗和碳排放在2000年至2020年的时空特征.
- 确定影响这些排放的空间变化的关键因素.
- 使用系统动态模型预测未来的碳排放场景 (2020-2060年).
主要方法:
- 政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 的碳排放测量方法.
- 地理探测模型用于确定影响因素.
- 系统动力学 (SD) 模型用于场景模拟和预测.
主要成果:
- 中国的总能耗碳排放量呈现波动性的增长,从"双M形"演变为"平坦S形"曲线,北方的空间分布高于南方.
- 关键影响因素从工业结构转移到经济层面,经济层面和科技创新始终主导空间分布.
- 在四种发展情景中,碳排放峰值预计在2029年至2037年之间,综合和协调发展情景最早达到峰值 (2029年).
结论:
- "经济-能源-公共服务-碳排放"的SD模型有效地模拟了未来的碳排放路径.
- 一个全面和协调的发展战略被确定为实现最早的碳峰值的最佳途径.
- 政策影响建议优先考虑综合发展,以有效减少排放和减缓气候变化.
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