基于K-Medoids集群和多因素优化分解的电动汽车充电站的短期充电负载预测研究
Hanting Li1, Minan Tang2, Jie Cao3,4
1School of Automation and Electrical Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, 730070, China.
Scientific reports
|October 15, 2025
概括
正确的电动汽车充电负载预测是具有挑战性的,因为充电行为波动. 使用K-Medoids集群和Crested Porcupine Optimizer-Variational Mode Decomposition-Bidirectional Gate Recurrent Unit的新型组合模型显著提高了短期预测的准确性.
科学领域:
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 人工智能的人工智能
背景情况:
- 电动汽车 (EV) 的充电行为表现出高的随机性和波动性,导致短期充电负载预测的准确性较低.
- 准确的预测对于优化充电利用率和增强用户充电体验至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了提高电动汽车充电站短期充电负载预测的准确性.
- 开发一个强大而有效的预测模型,解决电动汽车充电模式固有的复杂性.
主要方法:
- 提出了一个混合模型,集成K-Medoids集群,Crested Porcupine Optimizer (CPO) 优化的变化模式分解 (VMD) 和双向门反复单元 (BiGRU).
- K-Medoids集群增强了数据集质量,用于预测.
- CPO以适应性优化了VMD参数,以分解历史充电负载数据,减少非静止性.
- 这些分解的特征被输入到BiGRU模型中进行预测.
主要成果:
- 与独立和未优化模型相比,拟议的组合模型在预测准确度方面取得了显著的改进.
- 平方根平均误差和平均相对误差平均分别减少了56.95%和41.60%.
- 在美国充电站数据集上的真实世界模拟验证了该模型的有效性.
结论:
- 开发的混合动力模型有效地提高了短期电动汽车充电负载预测的准确性.
- 该方法为优化充电站运营和改善充电体验提供了实用和有效的解决方案.
- 集群,优化分解和深度学习的整合为处理复杂的时间序列数据提供了强大的方法.
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