一个高精度的短期光伏功率预测模型,基于多变量变量模式分解和门循环单元注意力,带有Crested Porcupine优化器增强的矢量加权平均算法
Jinxiang Pian1, Xianliang Chen1
1School of Electrical and Control Engineering, Shenyang Jianzhu University, Shenyang 110168, China.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)
|October 16, 2025
概括
一个新的混合型号提高了光伏 (PV) 短期功率预测的准确性. 这种先进的系统将数据分解与优化的神经网络相结合,增强可再生能源的整合和电网稳定性.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 人工智能在能源中的作用
- 电力系统工程 电力系统工程
背景情况:
- 对光伏 (PV) 系统等可再生能源的日益依赖对于可持续发展至关重要.
- 准确的短期光伏电力预测对于高效的电网整合至关重要,但仍然具有挑战性.
- 现有的预测方法经常与光伏发电的波动性和复杂性作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的混合预测模型,以提高短期光伏发电预测的准确性.
- 通过先进的预测技术,提高分布式光伏系统的效率和可靠性.
- 解决当前预测模型在捕捉复杂的光伏功率动态方面的局限性.
主要方法:
- 一个混合模型,集成多变量变化模式分解 (MVMD) 与门式反复单位 (GRU) 网络,注意力机制 (ATT) 和增强的矢量加权平均算法 (cINFO).
- 使用MVMD进行数据分解以减少波动.
- 使用Crested Porcupine Optimizer (CPO) 的INFO算法的优化版本cINFO算法被用于微调GRU-ATT的超参数,ATT专注于关键影响因素.
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型在阳光条件下在DKASC爱丽斯斯普林斯数据集上实现了高预测准确度.
- 关键性能指标包括0.0249的平均绝对误差 (MAE),0.0693的根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 和99.79%的确定系数 (R2).
- 该模型显著优于基准模型,证明了其卓越的预测能力.
结论:
- 开发的混合 MVMD-GRU-ATT-cINFO 模型对于短期光伏电力预测是可行的和优越的.
- 这些发现支持该模型在增强光伏系统融入电网方面的潜力.
- 这项研究为克服可再生能源预测准确性的局限性提供了强有力的解决方案.
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