用概率编程计算水泥稳定冷回收混合物的疲劳寿命的不确定性量化
Hao Liu1, Jiaolong Ren1, Lin Zhang1
1School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China.
Materials (Basel, Switzerland)
|October 16, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种不确定性量化方法,用于评估路面材料疲劳寿命. 开发的方法准确地预测了水泥稳定冷回收混合物的疲劳行为,提高了设计可靠性.
科学领域:
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
- 材料科学 材料科学 材料科学
- 计算力学 计算力学 计算力学
背景情况:
- 疲劳裂是路面结构的主要故障模式,需要准确的疲劳寿命评估.
- 路面材料的标准疲劳测试受到建筑和操作因素的重大不确定性.
- 在不确定性下量化疲劳寿命对于可靠的路面设计至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种不确定性量化 (UQ) 方法,用于评估路面材料的疲劳寿命.
- 解决固有的不确定性在疲劳测试的水泥稳定冷回收混合物 (CSCRMs).
- 利用概率编程来描述疲劳寿命的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 使用PyMC3开发了一个UQ方法,这是一个概率编程包.
- 采用概率编程来基于测试数据和已建立的疲劳公式来建模疲劳寿命不确定性.
- 通过确定疲劳寿命公式中的未知系数来量化不确定性.
主要成果:
- 对于疲劳寿命预测,获得的确定系数 (R2) 大于0.96.
- 确定系数的最大和平均误差分别低于11%和7%.
- 验证了预测的疲劳寿命与实验数据密切匹配.
结论:
- 开发的UQ方法准确地评估了疲劳寿命及其在CSCRMs中的不确定性.
- 该方法简化了复杂的统计计算,为路面工程提供了一个实用的方法.
- 更好地了解CSCRM疲劳行为和改善路面设计可靠性.
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