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分布性质对采样行为的影响
Thai Quoc Cao1, Benjamin Scheibehenne1
1Cognition and Consumer Behavior Lab, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany.
Frontiers in psychology
|October 16, 2025
概括
人们的搜索行为被罕见的结果所影响,导致估计偏差. 虽然更多的样本有助于调整估计到真正的平均值,但采样偏差仍然存在,影响各种决策环境中的判断.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 个人往往过度考虑罕见的结果,影响决策和判断.
- 之前的研究将这归因于诸如概率权重缺陷之类的认知偏见.
- 这项研究探讨了一个替代假设:由于罕见的结果导致的搜索行为偏见.
研究的目的:
- 检查偏斜分布中的罕见结果如何影响采样行为.
- 为了确定增加抽样是否有助于调整估计到真正的平均值.
- 了解基础上的认知过程调整采样偏差.
主要方法:
- 180名参与者完成了一项涉及产品评级直方图的在线购物任务.
- 参与者采样了代表客户评论 (积极性得分) 的组图纸箱.
- 组织谱形状 (斜率) 和样本数量被操纵来评估估计准确性.
主要成果:
- 双项测试证实了对罕见结果 (11-12%的样本) 的显著抽样偏差.
- 估计与更多样本接近真实平均值,特别是在负倾斜分布 (-7%) 中.
- 尽管进行了调整,但估计偏离了真实平均值约9.3%,显示了持续的抽样偏差.
结论:
- 搜索偏差系统地影响分布判断和估计准确性.
- 认知过程与有偏见的抽样相互作用,影响决策.
- 这些发现对电子商务,社交媒体和政治背景中的人与算法的互动有影响.
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