青少年司法金融制裁对青少年重犯行为的影响
Luyi Jian1, Jennifer L Skeem2, Jaclyn E Chambers3
1School of Criminal Justice, University at Albany, State University of New York.
Law and human behavior
|October 16, 2025
概括
少年司法中的财政制裁适度地增加了重复犯罪的风险,但单独的费用没有. 改革应该考虑更广泛的制裁和基于证据的计划,以减少重犯.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 青少年司法是什么意思
- 公共政策 公共政策
背景情况:
- 人们越来越多地倡导在少年司法系统中改革金融制裁 (费用,罚款,赔偿),特别是取消费用.
- 一个关键的论点是,这些制裁可能会增加重犯,但将金融制裁与重犯联系起来的经验证据是有限的,并产生混合的结果.
研究的目的:
- 测试整体金融制裁,特别是费用对未成年缓刑犯的缓刑违规和在两年内再次被捕的风险的影响.
- 检查金融制裁是否会增加在一个庞大,多样化,有风险的少年缓刑人口中重犯的可能性.
主要方法:
- 利用来自县和州机构的2401名受监督青年的行政数据.
- 使用机器学习应用目标最大概率估计 (TMLE) 进行因果推理,以分析金融制裁对重犯行为的影响.
主要成果:
- 总体而言,金融制裁适度增加了缓刑违规 (9%至14%) 和重新逮捕 (54%至58%).
- 仅仅是费用并不能显著预测缓刑违规或重新逮捕.
- 金融制裁对重犯行为的影响并没有受到种族,社会经济地位或累积风险的影响.
结论:
- 金融制裁给家庭带来负担,但却是犯罪复发的弱预测因素.
- 旨在防止重复犯罪的改革努力应该超越收费,包括更广泛的金融制裁.
- 优先考虑基于证据的计划和服务可能比单独的金融制裁更有效地减少重复犯罪.
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