在五年内开发和验证骨质疏松症患者因任何原因死亡率的诺姆图
Yuhao Li1, Xiaowan Xie2, Yazhou Liu3
1Department of Orthopedics, Dandong Central Hospital, China Medical University, Dandong, China.
PloS one
|October 16, 2025
概括
一个新的诺莫图预测骨质疏松症患者的5年死亡率,使用年龄,性别,吸烟,FBG,尿酸,酒精和BMI. 这个工具有助于风险分层,以实现个性化骨质疏松症管理.
科学领域:
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 骨质疏松症是骨折和死亡的主要危险因素.
- 预测骨质疏松患者的长期死亡率的现有工具是有限的.
- 准确的死亡率预测对于有效的患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个名谱来预测骨质疏松症患者的5年全因死亡率.
- 确定与该人群死亡风险相关的关键临床因素.
主要方法:
- 使用NHANES (2007-2023) 和丹东中央医院 (2017-2024) 数据进行的回顾性队列研究.
- LASSO和多变量逻辑回归确定了死亡率的独立预测因素.
- 使用C指数,ROC,校准曲线和决策曲线分析构建和验证名图.
主要成果:
- 确定了七个独立预测因素:年龄,男性性别,吸烟,更高的禁食血糖 (FBG),更高的尿酸,酒精使用和更高的身体质量指数 (BMI).
- 年龄,男性性别,吸烟,更高的FBG和更高的尿酸增加了死亡风险.
- 酒精使用和更高的BMI是保护因素.
- 命名图显示出强烈的区别 (AUC训练=0.834,AUC验证=0.862) 和良好的校准.
结论:
- 一种新的骨质谱有效地预测了骨质疏松症患者的5年全因死亡率.
- 该工具包含了七个常见的临床因素,用于风险分层.
- 在广泛临床应用之前,建议进行进一步的外部验证.
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