为清洁航空业动员资金和技术
David G Victor1,2,3, Thomas Conlon4, Philipp Goedeking5
1School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
概括
研究经理和投资者需要改进的方法来评估可扩展的转型技术的风险和回报. 这项研究探讨了用于更好的决策的技术评估的新方法.
科学领域:
- 技术管理
- 创新经济学
背景情况:
- 在风险效益分析中,可扩展和转型技术带来了独特的挑战.
- 目前的评估框架可能无法充分把握新兴技术的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和提出改进的方法来评估可扩展的转型技术的风险和潜在益处.
- 帮助研究经理和投资者在技术采用和投资方面做出更明智的决定.
主要方法:
- 审查现有的技术评估框架.
- 分析涉及可扩展的转型技术的案例研究.
- 开发一个多标准决策分析模型.
主要成果:
- 在新兴技术的传统风险效益分析中发现的局限性.
- 提出了一个包含动态风险评估和收益预测的新框架.
- 通过模拟投资场景证明了框架的适用性.
结论:
- 加强的方法对于准确评估可扩展的转型技术的潜力至关重要.
- 拟议的框架为技术投资的决策提供了更强大的方法.
- 改进的评估工具可以更有效地分配创新资源.
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