对临灭绝的Brachymystax tsinlingensis的气候驱动性息地重新分配的整体模型预测
Linghui Su1, Youjin Hao2, Jigang Xia1
1Fish Ecology and Conservation Research Center, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 401331, China; Laboratory of Evolutionary Physiology and Behavior, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Conservation and Utilization of Freshwater Fishes, College of Life Sciences, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing, China.
Journal of environmental management
|October 16, 2025
概括
气候变化威胁着临灭绝的林 (Brachymystax tsinlingensis) 通过缩小适合息地而受到威胁. 保护工作必须集中在林山脉的高海拔溪流上,以保护这种脆弱的物种.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球生物多样性构成重大威胁,由于温度驱动范围的变化,特别影响淡水鱼.
- 林 (Brachymystax tsinlingensis) 是一个危的鱼类物种,是气候变化对北半球河流生态系统影响的关键指标.
- 关于林列诺克的空间分布的研究有限,这凸显了对预测建模的需求.
研究的目的:
- 预测在各种气候变化场景下,林的当前和未来息地适合性.
- 确定影响物种分布的关键生物气候变量.
- 为林山脉临灭绝的林林的保护策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 采用集体物种分布模型 (ESDM) 集成四种算法:人工神经网络 (ANN),通用添加模型 (GAM),梯度增强机 (GBM) 和最大模型 (MaxEnt).
- 使用发生记录和七个生物气候变量用于模型校准和预测.
- 根据CMIP6气候情景,预计2041-2060年期间的息地适用性.
主要成果:
- 这些ESDM表现出强大的预测性能 (AUC = 0.928,TSS = 0.988).
- 目前适宜的息地主要位于林山脉 (3799平方公里) 内的河和汉江河流盆地.
- 未来的预测表明,适合息地的大量收缩 (根据气候模型减少41-60%或60%以上),并向上游支流转移.
结论:
- 由于气候变化,林鱼面临着大量的息地丧失,这强调了分布在南部的鱼类的脆弱性.
- 影响息地适宜性的关键因素包括与温度相关的变量 (BIO5,BIO4,BIO7) 和降水 (BIO18,BIO3).
- 保护优先事项应包括保护高海拔溪流息地,并为林鱼实施适应性补给战略.
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