在气候变化下的全球大米土地适用性和适应战略
Amir Dadrasi1, Davina Vačkářová2, Fatemeh Salmani1
1Charles University, Environment Centre, Prague, Czech Republic.
Journal of environmental management
|October 16, 2025
概括
气候变化影响着大米生产,威胁到粮食安全. 晚播是一种关键的适应策略,特别是在亚洲,以维持大米种植和确保全球粮食供应.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 粮食安全 粮食安全
背景情况:
- 米是全球至关重要的粮食主食,支持全球一半以上的人口.
- 气候变化,以气温上升和降水变化为特征,对大米生产和粮食安全构成重大威胁.
- 适应性战略对于在面对这些气候变化时维持农业系统至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对19个次区域的水土地适用性的影响.
- 评估播种日期调整作为大米种植适应战略的有效性.
- 确定对气候变化对大米生产影响最脆弱和最有弹性的地区.
主要方法:
- 利用高分辨率的气候数据 (WorldClim) 来进行历史和未来的预测 (CMIP6,SSP245,SSP585).
- 集成的土壤数据 (粮农组织协调世界土壤数据库) 和大米面积测绘 (SPAM2020).
- 应用了利比格的最小定律,并模拟了早期播种 (ES) 和晚期播种 (LS) 的适应.
主要成果:
- 气候变化显著改变了大米土地的适用性,热带地区的面积下降,温带地区的面积增加.
- 东南亚,南亚和东非因热应激和不规则的降雨而面临适合性降低.
- 晚播 (LS) 已成为最有效的适应策略,特别是在亚洲主要的产区,提高灌和雨水系统的适用性.
结论:
- 气候变化对全球大米田的适用性产生了多种影响,需要采取适应措施.
- 晚期播种是维持亚洲关键地区大米生产的关键适应策略.
- 促进及时播种调整的特定区域政策对于确保全球粮食安全至关重要.
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