沿海城市的水位预测使用混合深度学习方法
Abdur Rahman1, M Hafidz Omar1, Tahir Mahmood2
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, 31261, Saudi Arabia.
The Science of the total environment
|October 16, 2025
概括
一个新的混合深度学习模型准确地预测了威尼斯等沿海城市的每小时水位. 这种先进的洪水预测系统提供了卓越的准确性和稳定性,即使数据有限.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源管理 水文和水资源管理
- 人工智能和机器学习
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 沿海城市在实时洪水预测方面面临重大挑战,原因是复杂的水文动态和稀缺的历史数据.
- 准确的预测对于开发有效的洪水预警系统至关重要,特别是在气候敏感地区.
研究的目的:
- 引入和评估一种新的混合深度学习模型,用于准确的每小时水位预测,在意大利威尼斯.
- 在各种数据条件下,与已建立的基线方法对比,评估模型的性能.
主要方法:
- 开发一种混合深度学习模型,CNN-Transformer-SKANs,集成卷积神经网络 (CNNs),变压器层和 Kolmogorov Arnold 网络 (SKANs).
- 在两年的高分辨率气象和水文数据上训练模型,包括风速,潮水位,湿度,大气压力和先前的水位.
- 对LSTM,CNN-LSTM和变压器变体等基线模型进行比较分析.
主要成果:
- CNN-变压器-SKANs模型实现了卓越的准确性,纳什-萨特克利夫效率 (NSE) 约为0.99,根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 低于0.03米.
- 该模型在减少训练数据场景和合成极端值模拟下显示出稳定性,保持高精度 (RMSE 0.02-0.03 m,NSE高达 0.99).
- 超过了传统的LSTM和CNN-LSTM基线,其RMSEs为0.04-0.07m和NSEs为0.90-0.97.
结论:
- 拟议的CNN-Transformer-SKANs模型为沿海城市环境中的洪水预警系统提供了可靠和高度准确的解决方案.
- 该模型的强大泛化性能使其适用于气候敏感地区,需要先进的洪水预测能力.
- 混合深度学习架构显示出解决复杂的水文预测挑战的重大前景.
相关概念视频
01:17Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
283
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
283
01:18Uniform Depth Channel Flow: Problem Solving
426
To calculate the flow rate for a trapezoidal channel, first, identify the bottom width, side slope, and flow depth of the channel. The cross-sectional area (A) corresponding to the depth of flow (y), channel bottom width (B), and side slope (θ) is determined by:Next, calculate the wetted perimeter, which includes the bottom width and the sloped side lengths in contact with the water. Using the values of the cross-sectional area and the wetted perimeter, determine the hydraulic radius by...
426
01:03Precipitation Gravimetry
13.9K
Precipitation gravimetry is based on converting an analyte into a sparingly soluble precipitate, which is separated by filtration and weighed. An ideal precipitate should be pure, insoluble, of known composition, and easily filtered from the reaction mixture.
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
13.9K
01:19Design Example: Maintaining Level of an Embankment
406
Constructing a roadway embankment over uneven terrain requires precise leveling to ensure stability and proper drainage. Surveyors use a leveling instrument and staff to calculate ground elevations and determine the required fill material at each point along the embankment alignment.The process begins by positioning a leveling instrument near a benchmark with a known elevation. A backsight reading establishes the instrument height, which serves as a reference for subsequent measurements. A...
406
01:29Application of Linearization and Approximation
36
A drone flying through complex terrain often relies on more than one sensing method to estimate small changes in altitude. Along with direct measurements, air pressure provides a useful indirect indicator of vertical movement. Atmospheric pressure decreases as altitude increases, and this relationship is commonly described using an exponential model. Although accurate, converting pressure measurements into altitude values requires calculations that are too complex to perform repeatedly during...
36
01:21Design Example: Creating a Hydraulic Model of a Dam Spillway
668
Scaled hydraulic models of dam spillways provide a practical way to replicate and study the intricate flow dynamics of these structures. Often built to a 1:15 ratio, these models allow for observing critical water behavior, such as velocity distribution, flow patterns, and energy dissipation.
668