机器学习和深度学习方法的应用在临床流行病学中用于预测建模与时间到事件结果. 方法比较和实践考虑,以实现概括性和可解释性
Siona Prasad1, Sabina A Murphy1, David A Morrow1
1TIMI Study Group, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Annals of epidemiology
|October 16, 2025
概括
梯度增强机 (GBM) 为临床预测模型 (CPM) 提供了优势,具有时间到事件的结果,平衡灵活性,歧视和可解释性. 这种机器学习方法有效地整合了复杂的预测因素,如生物标志物,以改善心血管风险评估.
科学领域:
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 临床预测模型 (CPM) 对于临床流行病学中的诊断和预后至关重要.
- 机器学习 (ML) 和深度学习 (DL) 为CPM提供了灵活的方法,特别是对于生物标志物等复杂预测因素.
- 人们对ML/DL在CPM中的节性,概括性和解释性存在担忧.
研究的目的:
- 评估和应用基于回归,ML和DL的方法,以获得时间到事件的结果.
- 将蛋白质生物标志物和脂质整合到现有的心血管风险CPM中.
- 评估不同建模技术的性能和实际实施.
主要方法:
- 在临床数据集中应用选定的基于回归的ML和DL方法.
- 专注于时间到事件结果.
- 将蛋白质生物标志物和脂质集成到心血管风险预测模型中.
主要成果:
- 梯度增强机 (GBM) 显示出相当大的优势 (C-统计=0.72,屏障得分=0.052).
- GBM实现了灵活性,歧视,校准和节的最佳平衡.
- GBM的结果促进了个体风险预测,并为CPM实施提供了可解释的工具.
结论:
- 针对CPM的ML和DL方法与时间到事件结果进行比较.
- 讨论了实际实施方面的问题,包括概括性和解释性.
- 得出结论,经过充分训练的ML方法提供了优势,特别是在复杂的预测器方面.
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