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逻辑正常分布捕捉了废水中肠道病毒度的特定地点变异性

Chaojie Li¹, Tamar Kohn¹, Shotaro Torii¹

¹Laboratory of Environmental Virology, School of Architecture, Civil & Environmental Engineering (ENAC), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne Lausanne Switzerland.

Environmental science : water research & technology

|October 17, 2025

概括

污水病毒监测从逻辑正常分布中获益,准确描述度并指导最佳的每周采样频率,以实现成本有效的公共卫生监测.

科学领域:

环境微生物学环境微生物学
废水流行病学废水流行病学
在环境科学中的统计建模.

背景情况:

准确量化废水中的病毒对公共卫生至关重要.
了解病毒度的时间变化是有效监测的关键.
现有的统计模型可能无法完全捕捉废水中病毒数据的复杂性.

研究的目的:

评估废水流入中的肠道病毒度的时间变化.
确定最适合的统计分布,用于模拟病毒度.
为了确定最佳的监测频率,以废水为基础的病毒监测.

主要方法:

从瑞士,美国和日本的多个废水处理厂 (WWTP) 收集了有影响力的废水样本.
分析了诺罗病毒,腺病毒,肠病毒和轮状病毒的度.
将lognormal,gamma和Weibull分布的合适性与时间病毒度数据进行比较.

主要成果:

逻辑正常分布准确地描述了所有部位和病毒的时间病毒度变化.
在捕捉高可变性方面,逻辑正常分布的表现优于玛和韦布尔分布.
发现每周监测足以高精度估计年平均肠道病毒度.

结论:

逻辑正常分布为废水病毒监测提供了一个强大的统计框架.
由于观察到的变异性差异,需要进行特定地点的评估.
优化的监测策略提高了基于废水的公共卫生干预措施的成本效益和精度.

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