英格兰和威尔士的麻疹和百日咳疫情:一个时间序列分析
Thomas Shepherd1, Christian Mallen1
1School of Medicine, Keele University, Staffordshire, England, ST5 5BG, UK.
NIHR open research
|October 17, 2025
概括
英格兰和威尔士麻疹和百日咳病例的增加与这些疾病及其症状的在线搜索趋势相关. 谷歌趋势可以为公共卫生监测和干预目标提供预测实用性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
- 数字健康数字健康
背景情况:
- 自2014年以来,英格兰和威尔士的麻疹和百日咳疫苗覆盖率下降.
- 这种下降导致了两种传染病社区病例的增加.
研究的目的:
- 调查谷歌趋势作为健康监测工具的潜力.
- 评估其对英格兰和威尔士麻疹和百日咳疫情的预测效用.
主要方法:
- 下载了关于麻疹,百日咳和相关症状的谷歌搜索数据 (07/01/2023-07/01/2024).
- 从传染病通知 (NOID) 报告中获取每周传染病病例数据.
- 采用时间序列分析,包括交叉相关性和回归模型.
主要成果:
- 在麻疹病例和"麻疹"搜索之间发现了显著的相关性 (滞后-1周).
- 百日咳病例与搜索"百日咳"",咳"",100天咳"和"吐" (延迟3至2周) 相相关.
- 回归分析证实"麻疹"",百日咳"和"咳"是重要的预测因素.
结论:
- 麻疹和百日咳在线搜索的增加早于报告病例的增加.
- 谷歌趋势显示了监测和潜在预测疾病爆发的前景.
- 需要进一步的研究来将谷歌趋势集成到现有的健康监测系统中,以改善公共卫生干预.
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