中国城市固体废物管理中的碳减排成本优化:共享的社会经济路径分析
Bin Zhang1, Zuyao Liu1, Yang Lu1
1School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; Digital Economy and Policy Intelligentization Key Laboratory of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081,China.
Waste management (New York, N.Y.)
|October 17, 2025
概括
在中国实施碳定价.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 废物管理系统 废物管理系统
背景情况:
- 城市固体废物 (MSW) 管理是中国温室气体 (GHG) 排放的重要贡献者.
- 当前的废物处理技术在经济成本和碳减排之间存在权衡.
- 现有的研究往往忽视了碳排放在废物管理中的经济影响.
研究的目的:
- 将碳定价纳入MSW处理优化模型.
- 评估中国各种废物处理途径对气候的影响.
- 分析废物处理技术,经济成本和不同社会经济途径 (SSP) 下的碳排放之间的相互作用.
主要方法:
- 开发一个优化模型,以纳入碳定价的MSW处理.
- 在多个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下模拟废物管理场景.
- 分析预计的MSW产量,处理技术的转变以及相关的成本和排放.
主要成果:
- 根据目前的做法,到2060年,中国的MSW产量可能超过5亿.
- 纳入碳定价可以在SSP1,SSP2和SSP5.5下,到2060年将碳排放量减少5%-7%,系统成本减少12%-35%.
- 预计将转向化学热解和生物发酵,增长2%-9%.
结论:
- 碳定价是优化中国废物管理体系,降低排放和成本的有效工具.
- 由碳定价驱动的技术转变可以导致更可持续的废物处理途径.
- 调查结果为中国和其他快速城市化国家的气候适应性废物政策和基础设施发展提供了洞察力.
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