到2100年,全球平均社会经济农场规模可能会增加三倍
Jiani Wang1,2, Yan Li3, Sheng Liu2
1State Key Laboratory of Lake and Watershed Science for Water Security, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China.
Nature communications
|October 17, 2025
概括
全球农场规模正在缩小,社会经济农场规模从1970-2000年减少15%,然后到2020年增加14%. 预测显示,到2100年,农场将大幅度整合.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 农场规模对于粮食生产和环境影响至关重要,但全球趋势的了解很少.
- 现有的农场规模指标往往忽略了社会经济因素.
- 了解农场规模动态对于可持续农业至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 引入和分析"社会经济农场规模"指标.
- 评估从1970年到2020年的全球农场规模趋势.
- 在不同的场景下预测未来的农场规模动态.
主要方法:
- 定义的社会经济农场规模为农业用地面积除以农场的数量.
- 利用跨越几十年的长期全球数据集.
- 在未来的预测中采用共享社会经济路径2 (SSP2) 场景.
主要成果:
- 全球平均社会经济农场规模在1970年至2000年间下降了15%.
- 在2000年至2020年期间,全球平均社会经济农场规模增加了14%.
- 观察到显著的区域差异,欧洲,北美和大洋洲的增长,印度和撒哈拉以南非洲的减少.
结论:
- 农场整合是一个日益增长的全球趋势,根据SSP2情景,预计到2100年将增加三倍.
- 农村人口的减少是农场整合的关键驱动力,特别是在亚洲和非洲.
- 需要有针对性的政策来管理农场整合的挑战和机会,以实现可持续的粮食生产.
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