使用来自国家疾病根除计划的数据来估计部门畜牧生物量和库存价值:基于2011年至2021年爱尔兰牛群的案例研究
Emma-Jane Murray1,2, Eoin Ryan3, Jonathan Rushton2
1UCD School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
Frontiers in veterinary science
|October 20, 2025
概括
准确的畜牧生物质和价值估计对于政策和经济监测至关重要. 这项研究开发了使用牛登记数据的动态模型来改进这些估计,显示了十年来生物质和价值的显著增加.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 动物科学动物科学
- 数据科学是数据科学.
背景情况:
- 牲畜生物质量和价值对于生产指标,环境影响评估和经济监测至关重要.
- 以往使用平均活体重的生物质估计方法由于缺乏人口和结构数据而不准确.
- 准确的牲畜价值估计对于了解经济效率和动物卫生政策成本至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用活量和价值模型来估计牛生物质和经济库存价值.
- 用牛登记和移动数据库进行颗粒生物质和价值计算.
- 探索爱尔兰牛业内牛生物质和库存价值的时间趋势.
主要方法:
- 开发了使用爱尔兰牛群数据的活体重和价值模型.
- 将模型应用于牛登记和移动数据库,以估计生物质 (千克) 和经济库存价值 (欧元).
- 根据群体类型使用群体分类树模型和分析随时间推移的趋势进行汇总估计.
主要成果:
- 爱尔兰牛畜部门的生物质从2011年的2,924,800增加到2021年的3,317,100.
- 牛部门的库存价值从6323.7万欧元 (2011) 增加到8792.3万欧元 (2021).
- 证明能够显示生物质和库存价值在几年内和几年间的变化.
结论:
- 使用实时移动数据的新方法提供生物质和库存价值的动态估计.
- 这种方法可以应用于动物,群体和国家层面.
- 这种方法适用于已建立动物登记和移动追踪系统的国家.
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