对于人类季节性流动性的有效干预机会模型
Pengjun Zhao1,2, Hao Wang2, Qiyang Liu2
1School of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.))
|October 20, 2025
概括
人类的季节性流动性可以通过考虑目的地的受欢迎程度而不是距离来更好地预测. 新的有效干预机会 (EIO) 模型准确地预测了主要假期期间的移民模式.
科学领域:
- 移动性研究研究
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 经济地理 经济地理
背景情况:
- 人类季节性流动对经济,劳动力市场和公共卫生产生重大影响.
- 传统的移动模式主要使用地理距离,忽视了目的地的吸引力.
- 目的地的受欢迎程度,如家庭活动或就业前景,影响旅行决策.
研究的目的:
- 引入和验证人类流动性的有效干预机会 (EIO) 模型.
- 通过整合目的地受欢迎程度来提高流动性预测的准确性.
- 为了解季节性迁移模式提供一个更现实的框架.
主要方法:
- 开发了有效干预机会 (EIO) 模型,用"有效距离"取代了地理距离.
- 利用了6年的4亿移动用户的移动流量数据.
- 模拟了中国的春节迁移 (春节) 和其他主要节日.
主要成果:
- 与传统的基于距离的模型相比,EIO模型表现出更高的性能.
- 精确预测春云期间的流动流动,这是中国最大的年度迁徙.
- 该模型还成功地预测了劳工节和国庆节等其他节日的模式.
结论:
- 将目的地受欢迎程度整合到移动模型中,可以显著提高预测准确度.
- EIO模型提供了一个更细致,更现实的代表人类季节性流动性.
- 这些发现对经济规划,公共卫生管理和运输物流有影响.
相关概念视频
Migration
8.8K
Migration is long-range, seasonal movement from one region or habitat to another. This common strategy, carried out by many different organisms around the world, is an adaptive response that typically corresponds to changes in an organism’s environment, like resource availability or climate. Migrations can involve huge groups of thousands of animals as well as single individuals traveling alone and can range from thousands of kilometers to just a few hundred meters.
8.8K
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
244
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
244
Optimal Foraging
13.6K
How animals obtain and eat their food is called foraging behavior. Foraging can include searching for plants and hunting for prey and depends on the species and environment.
13.6K
Clearance Models: Noncompartmental Models
240
Clearance is a pharmacokinetic parameter traditionally defined by compartment models, signifying the rate at which a drug is expelled from the body. However, a noncompartmental model offers an alternative method for assessing clearance, primarily employing empirical data obtained after administering a single drug dose.
The noncompartmental approach capitalizes on extensive sampling data, correlating the volume of distribution to systemic exposure and the administered dosage. This method enables...
The noncompartmental approach capitalizes on extensive sampling data, correlating the volume of distribution to systemic exposure and the administered dosage. This method enables...
240
Biological Clocks and Seasonal Responses
41.5K
The circadian—or biological—clock is an intrinsic, timekeeping, molecular mechanism that allows plants to coordinate physiological activities over 24-hour cycles called circadian rhythms. Photoperiodism is a collective term for the biological responses of plants to variations in the relative lengths of dark and light periods. The period of light-exposure is called the photoperiod.
41.5K
Models of Health Promotion and Illness Prevention II
2.0K
The person's health status fluctuates continually, varying from being in good health to becoming ill and returning to being healthy. To understand the concept of illness prevention, there are two models. First, the health-illness continuum model is a graphic representation of an individual's wellness. It states that a person is considered healthy in the absence of physical disease and the presence of good emotional health.
The agent-host-environment model states that disease results...
The agent-host-environment model states that disease results...
2.0K


