预测建模和流行病学预测,在印度条件下的气候变化下,Brassica juncea中的sclerotinia rot在印度条件下变化
Pankaj Sharma1,2, Pramod Kumar Rai1,2, Prabhu Dayal Meena1
1ICAR-Indian Institute of Rapeseed Mustard Research, Bharatpur, Rajasthan, India.
Frontiers in plant science
|October 20, 2025
概括
印度子斯克莱罗蒂尼亚腐烂 (SR) 风险在10月下旬播种时最高,受温度,湿度和阳光的影响. 预测模型预测疾病,帮助可持续的作物保护战略.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 植物病理学 植物病理学
- 农业气象学 农业气象学
背景情况:
- 由 *Sclerotinia sclerotiorum* 引起的硬质 (SR) 是印度子 (*Brassica juncea* L.) 种植的主要威胁.
- 有效的疾病管理需要了解农业气象因素对SR发病率的影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查关键农业气象参数在不同播种窗口的印度末中对斯克莱罗提尼亚腐烂发病率的作用.
- 根据天气变量和播种日期,开发可靠的预测模型来预测SR风险.
主要方法:
- 一项长期实地研究 (2009-2022) 分析了每周的气象数据 (温度,RH,降雨量,风速,蒸发,BSSH).
- 基于回归的天气指数和随机森林模型被开发用于SR风险预测.
- 花感染研究评估了早期殖民压力和注射剂负载.
主要成果:
- 10月29日播种窗口显示了最高的SR风险 (高达39.4%),与特定温度 (18-20°C),高晨RH (>94%) 和低亮阳光小时 (<3.8) 相关.
- 在BSSH和SR发病率之间发现了强烈的负相关性 (R2=0.86),特别是在及时播种窗口.
- 疾病预测模型在验证时实现了高预测准确度 (R2=0.75-0.78).
结论:
- 播种时间显著影响SR疫情潜力,十月下旬的播种最容易受到影响.
- 综合播种日期和天气变量的预测模型为积极的疾病管理提供了可靠的决策支持系统.
- 11月19日播种窗口始终显示出较低的疾病风险,这是由于不利于病原体发展的微气候条件.
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