通过混合深度学习框架使用降水和温度时间序列检测气候变化信号
Muhammad Waqas1,2, Usa Humphries Wannasingha1, Angkool Wangwongchai3
1Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT), Bangkok, 10140, Thailand.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|October 20, 2025
概括
这项研究揭示了泰国显著的变暖趋势,沿海和城市地区的温度上升最快. 未来的预测表明持续的变暖和可变的降水,突显了当地气候适应战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化是一个重大的全球挑战,温度和降水变化作为关键指标.
- 虽然深度学习 (DL) 模型越来越多地用于气候变化检测,但它们与特定区域数据的应用有限.
研究的目的:
- 识别和量化泰国的气候变化信号,使用混合深度学习模型与特定区域数据集成.
- 分析历史温度和降水趋势,并预测泰国的未来气候场景.
主要方法:
- 采用了混合深度学习模型,结合了卷积神经网络 (CNN),长期短期记忆 (LSTM),时间卷积网络 (TCN) 和注意力机制.
- 该模型使用站点测量 (1993-2024) 和合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) - 泰国通用循环模型 (GCM) 模拟进行了训练和验证.
- 在集成到DL框架之前,对CMIP6-GCM数据应用了偏差校正技术.
主要成果:
- 历史分析显示,泰国各地的气候变暖趋势具有统计学意义,最低 (Tasmin) 和最高 (Tasmax) 温度显著增加,特别是在沿海和城市地区.
- 降水趋势表现出空间异质性,一些地区显示增加,而另一些地区显示下降. 该模型在偏差校正后实现了高精度 (R2 > 0.90) 和低误差 (MSE = 0.0461).
- 根据SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景的未来气候预测表明,温度信号的广泛出现,预计到2100年将出现强的变暖. 预计降水异常将保持微弱负面,变化很高.
结论:
- 该研究强调了利用泰国特定的观测和模型数据来准确地检测和量化气候变化的重要性.
- 这些发现为当地适应规划和政策制定提供了宝贵的见解,以应对泰国观察到和预测的气候变化影响.
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