扩大建模界限,以设计更有弹性的疫苗供应网络
Donovan Guttieres1, Carla Van Riet2, Nico Vandaele2
1Access-To-Medicines Research Centre, KU Leuven, Vlamingenstraat 83, Leuven, Belgium. donovan.guttieres@kuleuven.be.
Health care management science
|October 21, 2025
概括
COVID-19大流行揭示了公共卫生系统和疫苗供应网络 (VSN) 的弱点. 将VSN视为复杂的适应性系统 (CAS) 有助于设计更好的准备和疾病管理策略.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 复杂系统科学 复杂系统科学
- 供应链管理 供应链管理
背景情况:
- COVID-19大流行暴露了全球公共卫生基础设施的关键漏洞.
- 对准备工作的投资不足导致疫苗获取和分发的重大延迟.
- 不稳定的需求和不断变化的疾病威胁使疫苗供应链管理复杂化.
研究的目的:
- 通过复杂适应性系统 (CAS) 的镜头分析疫苗供应网络 (VSNs).
- 确定系统复杂性和环境共同演变如何影响VSN性能.
- 提出加强在卫生危机期间VSN弹性和管理的战略.
主要方法:
- 使用复杂自适应系统 (CAS) 框架对VSN的概念分析.
- 检查系统元素的相互作用和与外部环境的共同进化.
- 探索由复杂性产生的新兴系统行为.
主要成果:
- 扩大VSN边界揭示了高度复杂性和新出现的行为.
- 从CAS的角度来看,它有助于设计更好的VSN管理策略.
- 跨学科的综合建模可以捕捉影响VSN和疾病动态的反循环.
- 疫情防控需要了解超越直接疫苗供应链的机制.
结论:
- 将疫苗供应网络视为复杂的适应系统对于有效的流行病准备至关重要.
- 适应性管理策略对于在VSN中导航不确定性和中断至关重要.
- 对VSN的更好理解有助于持续的疾病管理和公共卫生弹性.
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