没有农业气候极端的干旱.
Sneha Kulkarni1, Yohei Sawada2
1Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-8656, Japan. snehakulkarni@g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp.
Scientific reports
|October 21, 2025
概括
干旱可以发生在没有极端气候变化的情况下,由社会经济因素驱动. 了解这些"没有农业气候极端的干旱" (DNACE) 对有效干旱管理至关重要,特别是在发展中国家.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 减少灾害风险 减少灾害风险
背景情况:
- 干旱的影响往往被社会经济脆弱性放大,而不仅仅是气候极端.
- 由于潜在的社会问题,干旱甚至在正常的农业气候条件下也可能出现.
研究的目的:
- 分析"没有农业气候极端的干旱" (DNACE) 的全球时空分布.
- 确定全球DNACE活动背后的社会经济驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 集成了一个分国家级的地理编码灾难数据库 (GDIS) 与一个联合干旱指标 (CDI).
- 分析了2001年至2020年间全球91个DNACE事件.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内确定了91个DNACE事件,集中在亚洲,非洲和美洲.
- 发展中国家占事件的97%,影响了3600万人.
- 主要驱动因素包括政治不稳定,冲突,强迫移民和经济危机.
结论:
- 干旱是复杂的事件,受到社会经济因素的重大影响.
- 缓解和适应战略必须包含有效干旱管理的社会经济考虑.
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