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气候变化和人类适应能力:日本历史见解和未来能力的综合框架
Lei Yuan1, Aurelio Tobías2, Chris Fook Sheng Ng1
1Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Environment international
|October 22, 2025
概括
日本人口对气温上升有所适应,随着时间的推移,最低死亡温度增加. 然而,这种适应并没有跟上最近的温度上升,这表明需要持续监测.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 温度与死亡率相关的时间变化已得到充分证实.
- 人类适应气候变化的历史速度和程度仍然不清楚.
- 了解适应对于公共卫生准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究值温度的时间变化及其不确定性.
- 量化日本历史气候适应的速度.
- 评估平均和值温度之间的时间变化的关系.
主要方法:
- 采用一种新的综合框架,结合时间序列回归和元分析.
- 从1972年到2019年,分析了来自日本47个县的数据.
- 绝对 (最低死亡温度,MMT) 和相对 (MMT百分位数,MMTP) 值的评估变化.
主要成果:
- 观察到MMT的显著增加,从20世纪70年代的23.91°C到2010年代的26.05°C.
- 报告MMTP从第82.9个百分点增加到第86.5个百分点.
- 全国范围的系数显示有轻微的调整,在过去的几十年中出现了较快的增长,随后趋于平稳.
结论:
- 日本人口已经在一定程度上适应了气候变化.
- 适应速度并不总是与温度上升的速度相匹配,尤其是在最近几十年.
- 调查结果强调了温度与死亡率关系的动态性质以及持续评估的必要性.
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