相关实验视频
Updated: Jan 14, 2026

12:44
Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
8.4K
城市抗洪能力的动态演变和基于场景的预测:中国昆明的一个系统动态建模方法
Yuan Zhiyong1, Cai Lei1, Xie Zhiqiang1
1School of Earth Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650504, China.
Journal of environmental management
|October 22, 2025
概括
城市抗洪能力规划通过压力状态响应 (PSR) 和系统动力学 (SD) 模型相结合而增强. 协调的发展场景显示出最佳的弹性,超过了极端气候挑战.
科学领域:
- 城市规划和气候变化适应
- 环境科学和灾害风险管理
- 系统动态建模系统动态建模
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化和城市化,城市洪水风险正在增加.
- 有效预防灾害需要对洪水机制和驱动因素有更深入的了解.
- 现有的模型往往无法捕捉到整个灾难周期.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个压力-状态-响应 (PSR) 和系统动力学 (SD) 模型,用于城市的抗洪能力.
- 分析中国昆明市抗洪能力的驱动机制.
- 在各种发展场景下,预测洪水抗灾能力的演变.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个结合的PSR-SD模型,涵盖了整个灾难周期.
- 建立了对抗洪水能力 (2010-2030) 的动态评估指数系统.
- 模拟了从2023年到2030年的五个发展场景 (商业常态,经济优先,环境优先,极端气候,协调发展).
主要成果:
- 昆明的抗洪能力遵循"衰退-稳定-恢复"的轨迹,与城市发展有关.
- 防洪工程措施表现出两年的政策滞后,影响了弹性发展.
- 协调发展场景产生了最高的弹性指数 (0.8807),比极端气候场景高18.12%.
结论:
- 综合治理战略对于提高城市抗洪能力至关重要.
- 结合的PSR-SD模型为弹性城市规划提供了动态决策支持.
- 多维协调治理提供了重要的防洪效益.
相关概念视频
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
283
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
283
Applications of GIS: Disaster Management and Emergency Response
467
Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is essential for risk identification, action prioritization, and resource optimization in critical situations like flooding and earthquakes. By integrating spatial and demographic data, GIS provides a comprehensive framework for emergency response.GIS integrates data layers, like rainfall intensity, topography, elevation profiles, and river levels, to model high-risk flood zones. These layers assess areas susceptible to flooding based on their...
467
Responses to Drought and Flooding
11.9K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
11.9K
Design Example: Creating a Hydraulic Model of a Dam Spillway
668
Scaled hydraulic models of dam spillways provide a practical way to replicate and study the intricate flow dynamics of these structures. Often built to a 1:15 ratio, these models allow for observing critical water behavior, such as velocity distribution, flow patterns, and energy dissipation.
668
Typical Model Studies
616
Fluid mechanics model studies often utilize scaled-down systems to predict fluid behavior in full-scale environments, such as river flows, dam spillways, and structures interacting with open surfaces. Maintaining Froude number similarity in river models is crucial, as it replicates surface flow features like wave patterns and velocities.
616
Modeling and Similitude
610
Scaled modeling is a fundamental technique in engineering, enabling the study of large and complex systems by creating smaller, manageable replicas that recreate critical characteristics of the original. In hydrology and civil infrastructure, for example, scaled models of dams help analyze water flow, turbulence, and pressure. This method allows for accurate predictions of real-world behavior within a controlled environment, significantly reducing the cost and time involved in full-scale...
610

